Cutting-edge work shows how forests will react to change

WASHINGTON — Although the fate of the massive Skyline Forest remains unsettled, some federal scientists are using cutting-edge research to predict how different scenarios would affect development and the fate of animals and plants in the area.

At the request of Oregon’s Department of Land Conservation and Development, the U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station in Portland is creating a sophisticated model of the human and natural environment in Central Oregon, including the 33,000-acre Skyline parcel that stretches between Bend and Sisters.

The research station feeds historical studies of similar forest types, past development patterns and expert opinions into a computer model to predict how the environment will react to decisions made by the forest’s owner, Fidelity National Timber Resources, and government policymakers, said Jamie Barbour, who is managing the project.

“We have some fairly sophisticated models that allow us to look at two things: One is how vegetation will change over time, and two is what management might do and how that might cause those processes that might happen without management to change,” Barbour said.

Bill Marlett, a former executive director of the Oregon Natural Desert Association, said the research station’s work is well-regarded.

“They’re generally insulated from some of the political pressures” that can affect Forest Service decisions, Marlett said.

A bevy of data

Barbour said the goal is to allow people on both sides of the development fence to make decisions based on better information.

“We hope our work will help the proponents and opponents of development in places like Central Oregon to come to agreement about what is likely to happen if different development policies are put in place,” Barbour said. “If they can do that, they can then focus on whether those outcomes are right for the people of Oregon rather than get caught in an endless debate about whether development will lead to one outcome or another.”

Researchers have been gathering data for the past several months. They hope to provide a report on their results by early next year, Barbour said.

The models take into account a bevy of factors, including land management, wildfire, insects, disease, plant growth development and invasive plants. They also divide land into several ownership categories, including private land, industrial and commercial, Forest Service, BLM and tribal ownership. Finally, they look at different landscape types, such as wilderness, wildland urban interface and stands of older trees.

When historical studies aren’t available, the researchers bring together experts to judge likely future scenarios, Barbour said.

With the Skyline Forest, researchers will ask experts about the habitat needs of mule deer, which live in Skyline Forest and could block development there.

“The different interest groups do not seem to agree on what those needs are, so we are convening a group of experts to discuss what the best way to represent mule deer habitat in our models would be,” Barbour said.

Refined models

The research center has been refining its models for more than a decade. In the process, it has gradually been able to base its predictions more heavily on studies and research than on experts.

“Overall, we guess that about half of the models include some level of expert opinion, but this is rapidly changing,” Barbour said. “When this process was developed for the Columbia Basin analysis in the mid-1990s, nearly all of the models were based on expert opinion.”

Once researchers agree on which information is relevant, they feed the data into their computer models and let the computer (a high-end home desktop) run through the various scenarios.

“It could take a while,” Barbour said, “but probably only an hour or so.”

Keith Chu can be reached at 202-662-7456 or at kchu@bendbulletin.com.